GrippeEspagneV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000126

Temporal association between the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): RSV as a predictor of seasonal influenza.

Identifieur interne : 000126 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000125; suivant : 000127

Temporal association between the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): RSV as a predictor of seasonal influenza.

Auteurs : A. Míguez [Espagne] ; A. Iftimi [Espagne] ; F. Montes [Espagne]

Source :

Epidemiology and infection [ 1469-4409 ] ; 2016.

RBID : pubmed:27165946

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Epidemics (MeSH), Female (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (virology), Logistic Models (MeSH), Male (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Orthomyxoviridae (physiology), Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections (epidemiology), Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections (virology), Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human (physiology), Seasons (MeSH), Spain (epidemiology), Time Factors (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections, Spain.
- physiology : Orthomyxoviridae, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human, Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Epidemics, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Logistic Models, Male, Middle Aged, Seasons, Time Factors, Young Adult.

Abstract

Epidemiologists agree that there is a prevailing seasonality in the presentation of epidemic waves of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and influenza. The aim of this study is to quantify the potential relationship between the activity of RSV, with respect to the influenza virus, in order to use the RSV seasonal curve as a predictor of the evolution of an influenza virus epidemic wave. Two statistical tools, logistic regression and time series, are used for predicting the evolution of influenza. Both logistic models and time series of influenza consider RSV information from previous weeks. Data consist of influenza and confirmed RSV cases reported in Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) during the period from week 40 (2010) to week 8 (2014). Binomial logistic regression models used to predict the two states of influenza wave, basal or peak, result in a rate of correct classification higher than 92% with the validation set. When a finer three-states categorization is established, basal, increasing peak and decreasing peak, the multinomial logistic model performs well in 88% of cases of the validation set. The ARMAX model fits well for influenza waves and shows good performance for short-term forecasts up to 3 weeks. The seasonal evolution of influenza virus can be predicted a minimum of 4 weeks in advance using logistic models based on RSV. It would be necessary to study more inter-pandemic seasons to establish a stronger relationship between the epidemic waves of both viruses.

DOI: 10.1017/S095026881600090X
PubMed: 27165946

Affiliations:

Espagne

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Le document en format XML

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<term>Child (MeSH)</term>
<term>Child, Preschool (MeSH)</term>
<term>Epidemics (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term>
<term>Logistic Models (MeSH)</term>
<term>Male (MeSH)</term>
<term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Orthomyxoviridae (physiology)</term>
<term>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections (virology)</term>
<term>Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human (physiology)</term>
<term>Seasons (MeSH)</term>
<term>Spain (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term>
<term>Young Adult (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH)</term>
<term>Espagne (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term>
<term>Femelle (MeSH)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
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<term>Infections à virus respiratoire syncytial (virologie)</term>
<term>Infections à virus respiratoire syncytial (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Jeune adulte (MeSH)</term>
<term>Modèles logistiques (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Nouveau-né (MeSH)</term>
<term>Orthomyxoviridae (physiologie)</term>
<term>Saisons (MeSH)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Virus respiratoire syncytial humain (physiologie)</term>
<term>Épidémies (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections</term>
<term>Spain</term>
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<term>Infections à virus respiratoire syncytial</term>
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<term>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Espagne</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Epidemiologists agree that there is a prevailing seasonality in the presentation of epidemic waves of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and influenza. The aim of this study is to quantify the potential relationship between the activity of RSV, with respect to the influenza virus, in order to use the RSV seasonal curve as a predictor of the evolution of an influenza virus epidemic wave. Two statistical tools, logistic regression and time series, are used for predicting the evolution of influenza. Both logistic models and time series of influenza consider RSV information from previous weeks. Data consist of influenza and confirmed RSV cases reported in Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) during the period from week 40 (2010) to week 8 (2014). Binomial logistic regression models used to predict the two states of influenza wave, basal or peak, result in a rate of correct classification higher than 92% with the validation set. When a finer three-states categorization is established, basal, increasing peak and decreasing peak, the multinomial logistic model performs well in 88% of cases of the validation set. The ARMAX model fits well for influenza waves and shows good performance for short-term forecasts up to 3 weeks. The seasonal evolution of influenza virus can be predicted a minimum of 4 weeks in advance using logistic models based on RSV. It would be necessary to study more inter-pandemic seasons to establish a stronger relationship between the epidemic waves of both viruses.</div>
</front>
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Temporal association between the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): RSV as a predictor of seasonal influenza.

Temporal association between the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): RSV as a predictor of seasonal influenza.

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Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

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